Experts point out that the PVC sheet market is mainly experiencing short-term fluctuations, but under the resonance of production capacity clearance and demand recovery, there may be a trend of recovery in mid-2026. Enterprises can focus on developing differentiated products to seize opportunities.

Recently, the PVC sheet market has shown a trend of consolidation and bottoming out, and the industry is undergoing structural adjustments, with a gradually emerging positive trend in the medium term. Despite facing high inventory and weak demand pressure in the short term, factors such as cost support, capacity optimization, and policy support resonate, driving the market towards supply-demand balance.

Capacity optimization acceleration: 2025 will be the year when the PVC capacity expansion cycle comes to an end. After the concentrated release of new capacity, the industry will enter the phase of elimination. It is expected that in the first quarter of 2026, old facilities in Xinjiang, Shandong and other places will accelerate their withdrawal, and the excess operating capacity investigated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will be further cleared, significantly easing supply pressure.

The demand side is showing signs of recovery: Although the current downstream pipe and profile production rates are at a seasonal low, the launch of spring infrastructure projects and the transmission of real estate policies are expected to gradually improve demand in the second quarter of 2026. The export market has become a highlight. After India cancelled BIS certification, China's PVC continued to grow in export volume due to its price advantage, effectively alleviating domestic inventory pressure.

Cost and policy support: The price of calcium carbide has bottomed out, and under the pattern of losses in the entire industry, the cost bottom support has been strengthened. At the same time, in the first year of the 15th Five Year Plan, the green building subsidy policy has driven the demand for PVC building materials, injecting long-term momentum into the market.

Experts point out that the PVC sheet market is mainly experiencing short-term fluctuations, but under the resonance of production capacity clearance and demand recovery, there may be a trend of recovery in mid-2026. Enterprises can focus on developing differentiated products to seize opportunities.